Flashpoint: A Path Toward Stability in the Western Balkans

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

The Subcommittee on Europe will come to order. The goal of this hearing is to promote balance in the Balkans. It is my hope that perhaps members on both sides of the aisle can agree on the common goal of serving U.S. interests as we seek to promote balance in this region, prosperity for its citizens, and deterrence of future conflicts. Excluding Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Western Balkans remains the most unstable region in Europe. Although open conflict has subsided since the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, centuries of ethnic division, shifting borders, and political mistrust continue to haunt this neighborhood as various political crises threaten the post-Yugoslav order. Case in point, Serbia's unresolved relationship with Kosovo is one of the core drivers of regional instability that has created a strategic fault line that enables Russia's ability to undermine the EU and NATO's ability to empower the Balkan countries. The 2023 Ohrid agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, intended to de-escalate immediate tensions and revive past agreements, has stagnated. Kosovo's election crisis has exacerbated this situation as a result of the republic's failure to form a government following its February 25 election, causing Kosovo's current preparation for another snap election on December 28th. Following the election, if Kosovo forms a government, it is my sincere hope that Serbia will finally recognize Kosovo's sovereignty. The rapidly deteriorating situation in Bosnia has led to an exponential increase of the use of legally questionable Bonn powers by the High Representative. This unchecked authority, which enables the High Representative to strike or impose legislation and remove officials from office, was dormant from 2014 to 2021, but in recent years their use has surged significantly. The United States has long supported efforts to build an independent and credible judiciary in Albania. After 10 years of implementation, however, it is appropriate to reexamine whether justice reform is functioning as intended and delivering impartial justice for the Albanian people. It should be concerning to all that the national case backlog has expanded from roughly 16,000 cases at the start of the reform to an estimated 200,000 today, leaving citizens waiting 8 to 15 years to receive a final ruling. Such delays undermine the rule of law, public trust, and due process. Daily life in the Western Balkans is marked by both a declining and aging population. Like many other parts of Europe, there is an exodus of those who are skilled and educated. Illegal immigration is rampant. Unemployment and poverty rates are rising dramatically. These factors are negatively impacting the rule of law, promoting organized crime, money laundering, and corruption. Perhaps the most persistent and pressing challenge continues to be the region's deeply rooted ethno-religious divisions. In Bosnia, some observers believe that the Dayton Peace Accords political system is exacerbating the ethnic divides as opposed to their intended role of bridging the gap. Neighboring Kosovo, on the other hand, has in place specific protections for minorities that exceed those of its EU counterparts. Kosovo fears Serbian leverage in the Association of Serb-majority Municipalities, the so-called ASM, and has not fully implemented ASM policies. Just across the border in southern Serbia, widespread reports of passivation of the Preševo Valley are well documented by multiple sources claiming that there is a concerted effort underway to rid the valley of ethnic Albanians. Indeed, America's adversaries are actively exploiting vulnerabilities like passivation while engaging in hybrid warfare that is adding to the instability of the region. The Chinese Communist Party has exerted its influence by conducting military drills and sending weapons to Serbia. In addition, the CCP continues to strike economic deals across the region as part of a specific effort to cultivate its malign apparatus and exploit corruption in the Western Balkans. Iranian state cyber actors known as Homeland Justice have repeatedly launched cyberattacks Albania for hosting dissidents of the regime. In fact, an attack last summer temporarily paralyzed the municipal services of Albania's capital city, Tirana. I also want to make a brief moment to congratulate the people of Albania on their recent Independence Day and reaffirm our strong partnership anchored in shared values and our NATO alliance. Russia is also influencing growing tensions through Bosnia's Republika Srpska and Serbia. Milorad Dodik, who is barred from running from public office of RS, continues to leverage his political capital to control the Bosnian Serb entity and to play to Russia's heavy-handed tactics like threatening secession from Bosnia. Whereas Serbia, despite indirectly supplying weapons to Ukraine, also has defense ties with Russia and China, promotes Russian and Chinese propaganda, reportedly hosted Russian operatives training paramilitary groups in eastern Serbia to disrupt Moldova's 2024 and 2025 elections. Though partially explained by perceived cultural ties, Serbia's alignment with Russia cannot be separated from its energy dependence. With a majority of its gas supplied by Russia, any effort to curb Moscow's political influence must address Serbia's reliance on NIS and Gazprom. In the event of renewed conflict, NATO Allies Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia would be directly in the crosshairs, potentially triggering Article 5 authority. Through synchronized defense efforts, NATO countries in the Balkans should work together to build military and political deterrence. Kosovo would be particularly exposed without NATO membership, which remains blocked by Spain, Greece, Romania, and Slovakia's refusal to recognize its independence. Despite these challenges, opportunities to improve stability, peace, and prosperity in the Western Balkans remain. 8 of my 25 years in the United States Army were spent serving in Europe, 5 of those years at the strategic headquarters of NATO and the U.S. European Command. During that time, I was intimately involved in NATO's Operation Allied Force in 1999. I have firsthand experience helping ensure peace and stability in this important region, yet all those years later, the Western Balkans remain a tinderbox. Without a change in strategy, U.S. leadership must have, must have a significant impact on maintaining stability and preventing renewed conflict that would adversely impact the balance of power in Europe. I applaud the Trump administration for re-engaging this often overlooked region. This subcommittee now has the opportunity to provide meaningful oversight and consider how Congress can help promote lasting stability, peace, and prosperity in the Western Balkans. And I yield to the ranking member.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Thank you, Mr. Chair. 30 years ago, the United States brokered the Dayton Peace Accords, ending the bloodshed of the Bosnian War. And I appreciate the subcommittee's focus on the Western Balkans in such an important anniversary. As we know, Dayton continues to underpin Bosnia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and multiethnic character, and I believe the U.S. must continue to support it as an important instrument to supporting Bosnia's future. This includes the OHR, the Office of the High Representative. And while the OHR deserves criticism, the removal or weakening of this position would only embolden separatist actors across Bosnia at a time of increased tension and threats in the region. As a part of the efforts to maintain regional stability, in September, I reintroduced the bipartisan Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act to codify sanctions in the bad actors in the region and expand people and the people-to-people ties that exist. I'm hopeful this legislation will be incorporated into the upcoming Defense Authorization Act, and I appreciate my colleagues on both sides of the aisle and in both chambers for their support. Unfortunately, officials in power in Bosnia continue to use their discontent with the decisions of OHR to stroke separatist rhetoric, which undermines the Dayton Accords. This, that's why I sent a letter recently to Secretary Rubio, along with Ranking Member Meeks, expressing our disagreement with the administration's decision to remove all sanctions on Milorad Dodik, his family, and his affiliates, who have demonstrated little willingness to change their behavior in Republika Srpska. By removing all sanctions on Dodik, the Trump administration has lost their leverage. Dodik may no longer be president of of Republika Srpska, but he's clearly still a power, and I urge this administration to reverse course and reinstate CAATSA on Dodik for his ongoing, disruptive behavior. Just as the Trump administration should be more engaged in supporting Dayton in Bosnia, I believe the administration must take a broader view of the bilateral relationship with Serbia. For years now, Serbia's President Vučić has eroded the rule of law and strengthened his country's relationship with Russia and China. Rather than condemn Belgrade's actions, the Trump administration has embraced Vučić, rewarded his malign relationships with Beijing and Moscow by upgrading the U.S.-Serbia bilateral relationship. As a result, I led a letter with all Democratic members of this subcommittee earlier this year to Secretary Rubio calling on him to prioritize the strengthening of anti-corruption and rule-of-law regimes in Serbia, as well as make clear to Belgrade that pursuing closer ties with Moscow and Beijing is not compatible with Serbia's stated aspirations to be fully incorporated into the transatlantic community. Yet rather than take anti-corruption efforts seriously, this administration has used the White House to enrich its friends and families. Just last month, Serbian officials approved legislation to allow Jared Kushner to develop a former defense ministry building in Serbia into a hotel resort, with Serbian parliamentarians openly saying they approved the legislation to make inroads with this U.S. administration. I wholeheartedly condemn President Trump's family and friends using the White House to further their own private business dealings, not only in Serbia, but also in Russia and in crypto markets around the world. Taking a step back, I believe the resolution of many regional conflicts and increased U.S. engagement in the Western Balkans would move all countries in the region closer to EU membership. This includes further progress in the EU-brokered dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, and I call on leaders in both countries to take the initiative and cease inflammatory rhetoric. I also call on the Trump administration to reassure allies and partners in the region that the U.S. will remain engaged and committed to the region's future. This includes maintaining a U.S. military presence in NATO's peacekeeping mission, KFOR, and fully implementing the Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact in Kosovo to expand energy security. I was proud to facilitate the signing of that compact in this very room in 2022, and I appreciate the administration continuing the program. It also means the administration should continue to support cybersecurity efforts in Albania and elsewhere, as well as ensure countries like Montenegro, North Macedonia, and others are well prepared to join the European Union. In closing, I appreciate our witnesses being here today to discuss the importance of U.S. engagement in the Western Balkans, yet I remain concerned this subcommittee has yet to have a hearing, any hearing, with a Trump administration official after almost one year in office. And I'd urge the majority to call on the administration as witnesses before the subcommittee so we can conduct the subcommittee's oversight responsibilities of this administration's policy towards Europe as a unity. With that, I yield back.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Thank you. Other members of the committee are reminded that opening statements may be submitted for the record. We're pleased to have a distinguished panel of witnesses before us today on this important topic. Mr. Max Primorac is a senior research fellow at the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation, covering Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America, foreign aid, and China's Belt and Road Initiative. Thank you. Mr. Luke Coffey is a senior fellow for the Center on Europe and Eurasia at the Hudson Institute. His work at the Hudson Institute analyzes national security and foreign policy with a focus on Europe, Eurasia, NATO, and transatlantic relations. Mr. Edward P. Joseph is a lecturer and senior fellow for the Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the Foreign Policy Institute and Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. This committee recognizes the importance of the issues before us today, vitally important to Europe, and we are grateful that you are here to speak to us today. Your full statements will be made a part of the record, and I'll ask each of you to keep your remarks to 5 minutes in order to allow time for member questions. I now recognize Mr. Primorac for an opening statement. Welcome, sir.

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. The views I express here today are my own and should not be construed as representing any official position of the Heritage Foundation. The Balkans are not doing well, as we all know. Thirty years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accord and billions of dollars in U.S. aid spent, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a failed state. Relations between its three constituent peoples—Serbs, Croats, and Muslims—are riven with distrust. Its economy is broken. Its population is shrinking fast. The state is in permanent crisis. It is time to end this post-Dayton nation-building disaster. Foremost, the country's national sovereignty must be restored by dissolving the Office of the High Representative, who dismisses elected leaders, vetoes legislation, and bans anyone he dislikes. These unaccountable foreign bureaucrats undermine the sovereignty and legitimacy of the state, block its institutions from maturing, and poison interethnic relations. Second, the State Department must end its effort to create a centralized Muslim-dominant state that violates Dayton's guarantee of equality between Bosnia's three self-governing peoples and pushes Serbs to secede. Croats suffer gross discrimination at the hands of a larger Muslim community and are denied the right to elect their own representatives, resulting in a 62% population decline. Only a third entity in majority Croat areas will save this persecuted Christian community, but the region will not stabilize until Serbia's normalization. Serbia's leaders remain wedded to a pro-Russia agenda that stokes instability among its neighbors, especially Kosovo and Montenegro, and provides Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran opportunities to undermine NATO's southern flank. The regional answer is to pull Serbia in and push Russia, China, and Iran out. Only U.S. leadership can do that. Mr. Chairman, President Trump's peace through strength global leadership, tied to practical diplomacy, offers Serbia and the Balkans a historic path towards Western integration. The President's dealmaking power elsewhere has not gone unnoticed. Serbian leaders seek President Trump's personal engagement in the region. Belgrade remembers how during his first term, Mr. Trump brokered peace between Serbia and pro-U.S. Kosovo through trade and investment. President Trump should expand the dealmaking approach regionally. Two strategic developments in Europe make that prospect ripe. First is the dawn of American energy supremacy. U.S. oil and gas can end Balkan energy reliance on Russia, defund Putin's war machine, and minimize Moscow's regional interference. The U.S. government was right to sanction Serbia's Russian-owned national oil and gas company. An expanded, U.S.-fed natural gas pipeline in Bosnia and Herzegovina to fuel the Balkans is stalled by Muslim intransigence in Sarajevo. Pipeline expansions through North Macedonia is delayed by the predations of its neighbors. Skopje—Skopje is a solid ally of the United States, recently joining us in supporting Israel and condemning the Cuban dictatorship. These represent unique opportunities to promote American energy dominance. The region also holds massive deposits of strategic minerals to offer the West relief from Chinese blackmail. Second, NATO's agreement to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP includes enhancing infrastructure. These offer the Balkans billions in investment opportunities, especially for American energy, equity, and construction companies. Next April's Three Seas Initiative, hosted by Croatia, presents a global forum to strike regional deals. Mr. Chairman, we must not restart past foreign aid programs that promoted social reengineering, climate madness, and other left-wing agendas that have generated anti-American sentiment. Finally, the White House should assign political ambassadors to the Balkans to promote a business-focused agenda, but be ready to use visa, banking, and other sanctions alongside commercial and investment incentives to pull the region out of Russian, Chinese, and Iranian hands. To conclude, we must stop what we have been doing in the Balkans. Our foreign aid-based, anti-sovereignty approach has failed. Instead, we should encourage American leadership to offer the Balkans a grand, investment-based bargain that locks the region into the West and locks out our adversaries. Thank you.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

I now recognize Mr. Coffey for an opening statement. Welcome,

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Chairman Self, Ranking Member Keating, and distinguished members of the committee, I'm honored to speak before this committee today about the Western Balkans. The views I express in this testimony are my own and should not be construed as representing any official position of Hudson Institute. Mr. Chairman, I will summarize my prepared statement that has been submitted for the record. To understand why the U.S. should care about the Balkans, it is important to first understand why Europe matters. Maybe Asia is the future, I don't know, but what I do know is that right now half of the world's GDP is located between North America and Europe. What I do know is that right now 46 out of 50 states export more to Europe than they do to China, and American exports mean American jobs. The economic prosperity that we rely on is dependent on the continent's stability. And history tells us very clearly that instability in the Balkans creates instability and security issues across the rest of Europe. The situation in the Balkans affects other interests, too, including Ukraine. The number one U.S. priority in Europe right now should be ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a way that makes the transatlantic community safer. This requires unity. Meanwhile, Russia sees the Balkans as an area to create instability and to divide the transatlantic alliance. In this context, Serbia remains Russia's enabler and serves as Moscow's primary foothold in the region. While Serbia occasionally signals a balanced foreign policy approach, the reality is that Belgrade remains firmly in Russia's orbit. This will not change anytime soon, no matter how much we would like it to. The Kremlin also uses the ethnic Serb entity of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina to sow further instability in the region. The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina deserves particular attention for U.S. policymakers. Milorad Dodik, the longtime leader of the region, was recently removed from office by the Bosnian courts, but he remains very influential and continues to advocate for the entity's secession from the rest of Bosnia, reigniting Serb nationalist goals from the Bosnian War. During his two decades in power, Dodik took steps to undermine Bosnia and Herzegovina's legitimate state structures by creating parallel institutions inside Republika Srpska. Throughout this, this was supported by Russia and also by Serbia. Dodik was sanctioned during the first Trump administration for, and I quote, "obstructing the Dayton Accords." These sanctions lasted for the duration of the first Trump administration and throughout Biden's administration. However, last October, the U.S. Treasury unexpectedly removed Dodik and his network from sanctions, an action that appeared out of the blue, unanchored to any broader U.S. strategy towards the Balkans, and without clarity on what, if anything, we got in return for this measure. From the standpoint of U.S. interests, this matters because political stability matters in Bosnia and Herzegovina. And the political stability in that country has a major effect on the overall stability of the Balkans, and thus on Europe's overall security architecture. It is worth recalling that this year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement. Not only did it end genocide and prevent any renewed outbreak of fighting for more than 30 years, it also kept Bosnia and Herzegovina as a single state at a time when breakup seemed likely. Although it is still an outside view in many policy circles, the idea of scrapping Dayton altogether is gaining traction. The Dayton Agreement is not perfect, but it has been one of the greatest diplomatic achievements by the United States in the post-Cold War era. And even with the problems that we see in Bosnia today, they're not killing each other and there's no genocide taking place. Scrapping the agreement would likely create more instability than exists today, at a moment when the United States and its European allies should be focused on maintaining unity over Ukraine and limiting Moscow's ability to manufacture crises elsewhere in Europe. In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, although the U.S. is not a Balkan country, it can certainly be a Balkan power, and President Trump should take steps to ensure America's national interests are secure there. Fortunately, he has a lot to build on from his first term. He led calls for the Three Seas Initiative, which is now active today. He led calls for the construction of the LNG terminal in Croatia, which now brings in more American LNG than from any other source. He brought in Montenegro into NATO, oversaw the Washington Agreement between Serbia and Kosovo, and the Prespa agreement between Greece and Macedonia. Now, back in the Oval Office, President Trump has made global diplomacy and ending wars a central theme of his second term. The Balkans should stay on his radar. To this end, I refer honorable members to the 10 recommendations I offer in my prepared statement, and I look forward to your questions. Thank you.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Thank you. I now recognize Mr. Joseph for an opening statement.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Keating, distinguished members of the Subcommittee on Europe, thank you for this opportunity to examine flashpoints in the Balkans and to discuss how the U.S. can seize a rare opportunity for a breakthrough towards lasting stability. Mr. Chairman, the fact that the subcommittee must hold today's timely and important hearing 35 years after the violent breakup of Yugoslavia began raises one overarching question: Why is this region in which the U.S., EU, and NATO hold commanding leverage still unstable? While no single actor, local or international, is wholly responsible for persistent tensions and malaise, one prerequisite for stability remains unfulfilled: Serbia's acceptance of the Western order for the region. The U.S. and allied struggle against malign Russian and Chinese influence in the Balkans will not prevail as long as those revisionist powers have a revisionist, quote, "strategic partner," unquote, in Belgrade. The moment for change has arrived. With an administration-imposed deadline looming for the Russian owners to exit Serbia's national oil company, NIS, the U.S. Embassy chargé in Belgrade stated this last week: when it comes to choosing its partners, Russia and China or the Euro-Atlantic community, quote, "Serbia is at the crossroads." And so is the United States. Now is the moment to stand firm, moving Belgrade towards finally deciding its strategic orientation. Choosing the Euro-Atlantic path, the only rational one for Serbia, which cannot become the Belarus of the Balkans, will end the manipulation of Western partners who want to see Serbia succeed. A decisive choice will open the path to prosperity and comity that Serbians and their neighbors deserve. Fortunately, the administration is in a strong position to guide Belgrade in this direction. The year-long mass protests by Serbian citizens demanding government accountability in the wake of the fatal collapse at the Novi Sad train station in 2024, which, as the subcommittee knows, part of China's Belt and Road strategy, which U.S. officials in Belgrade should point out— this collapse and protests have removed the aura of invincibility and fear of the government led by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. Instead, anxiety has shifted, evidenced by attacks on journalists, protesters, and violence and intimidation of voters at recent local elections, while the government avoids the obvious solution, which is to hold national elections. As the EU has learned the hard way, the Vučić government is also struggling to deliver on its commitments. Last week, Rio Tinto, the concessionaire on the ballyhooed lithium strategic partnership that Brussels and Belgrade signed last year, shelved the project because it cannot get permitting for the mine that is siphoning capital. The ability of the Serbian government to deliver on its commitment to demolish the General Staff and Ministry of Defense building, part of the Trump-branded hotel project in downtown Belgrade, is in doubt, given the broad spectrum of opposition and the heritage of the building stretching back well before the 1999 NATO strike on the site. Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member, and distinguished committee members, the path to finally achieving lasting stability runs through Belgrade, not via routine supplication of the government, but a firm hand and genuine partnership. What does that mean concretely? First, the U.S. must not fall for Russian or Serbian ploys to buy time on exiting NIS. Members should support the administration moving Belgrade swiftly towards nationalizing NIS, recovering the national oil company that was sold for a song to Moscow in 2008. The U.S. should support Belgrade by devising countermeasures to dissuade Moscow from cutting off gas or hiking prices, such as immediate closure of Russian media outlets RT and Sputnik, now hosted by Serbia in defiance of EU sanctions; imposition of EU sanctions on Russia, as Serbia has refused to impose in contrast to all its WB6 neighbors; and closure of the Russian Humanitarian Center in the south of Serbia, widely suspected as an intelligence-gathering site. Second, the U.S. can break Belgrade's destructive relationship with Russia and China by tackling the standoff with Kosovo. And I should mention Serbia's relationship with other malign actors that include, in this hemisphere, Venezuela. The ultimate answer is not the EU-led dialogue, but a path to NATO membership for Pristina and Belgrade. President Trump is well placed to make this historic, transformative offer. In the meantime, the U.S. must depart from the imbalanced stance towards Belgrade and Pristina, where only the latter is held accountable for provocations. This disparity has coincided with flare-ups, including the 2023 Banjska operation in the north of Kosovo, and incidents continue, including the recent alleged abduction of a Kosovo Serb citizen from Kosovo. Actively advancing the strategic dialogue with Serbia while suspending the same with Kosovo is ignoring the lessons of the recent past. The U.S. can build deterrence by building up its bilateral relationship with Kosovo, especially as Serbia increases its defense relationship with China, underscored by the drills Serbian troops conducted in China this summer. Third, seize the best opportunity in years to break the atrophy in Bosnia-Herzegovina created by the removal of Milorad Dodik from the presidency of Republika Srpska. Unfortunately, the hasty removal of sanctions on Dodik has brought the administration more work and less leverage. The initial breakthrough last week on the Southern Interconnector is proof that active, creative U.S. engagement can work. The Trump administration is well-placed to collaborate with the international High Representative to break the seminal dispute on state and defense property, unleashing opportunities for U.S. investors and Bosnian citizens. Washington can address the other bully in the region, Bulgaria, by backing Macedonian efforts for a reasonable guarantee that Skopje will not be subject to more identity demands from Sofia. The U.S. must ensure that the VMRO-led government adheres to the most successful peace agreement in the region, the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Finally, active American engagement, not nation-building, can help NATO allies Albania and Montenegro advance on their EU path, giving them the internal monitoring and external protection that they need. This includes focusing on the backsliding the judiciary and arrests of opposition figures in Albania, and focusing on interference from Belgrade in Montenegro. In conclusion, by seizing the moment, the U.S. and its partners can move from suppressing flashpoints towards long-overdue stability and prosperity. Thank you very much for your attention. I'm at your disposal for any questions.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Thank you. I should have announced Mr. Joseph had asked for a couple of extra minutes, and in agreement with the ranking member, he received them. So I now recognize myself for 5 minutes of questioning. Mr. Joseph, I want to start with two quotes from Serbia's constitution: first, from the preamble of the 2006 Constitution of the Republic of Serbia: Considering also that the province of Kosovo and Metohija is an integral part of the territory of Serbia, that it has the status of a substantial autonomy within the sovereign state of Serbia, and that from such status of the province of Kosovo and Metohija follow constitutional obligations of all state bodies to uphold and protect the state interests of Serbia in Kosovo and Metohija in all internal and foreign political relations. Then, Article 114 of the Serbian constitution, which is, While assuming office, the President of the Republic shall take the following oath before the National Assembly: 'I do solemnly swear that I will devote all of my efforts to preserve the sovereignty and integrity of the territory of the Republic of Serbia, including Kosovo and Metohija as its constituent part, as well as to provide exercise of human and minority rights and freedoms, respect and protection of the Constitution and laws, preservation of peace and welfare of all citizens of the Republic of Serbia, and perform all my duties conscientiously and responsibly.' Mr. Joseph, does Serbia recognize Kosovo's right to exist as a sovereign nation?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you for the question, Mr. Chairman. The answer to that is clearly no. Serbia does not recognize Kosovo's right to exist, nor does it recognize the significance of the 2010 decision, an opinion rendered by the International Court of Justice in The Hague brought by Serbia through the United Nations. And that opinion of the ICJ said that Kosovo's declaration of independence violates neither international law nor the UN Security Council Resolution 1244. Nonetheless, Serbia clings to its position, claims that that decision doesn't recognize Kosovo's statehood. However, Belgrade doesn't take the obvious course, does not take its claim on statehood to The Hague. In my opinion, the reason why not is because Belgrade knows that it would lose in that case.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Just a reminder of the timeline: 1999, the US attacked Yugoslavia, still Yugoslavia at that point. 2006 was the Serbia constitution ratified. 2008, Kosovo declared independence, and the United States recognized Kosovo. 2013, the ASM was started. 2023 was the Ohrid Agreement. So, that's the timeline that we're working on of the stagnation. So, Mr. Joseph, one more question for you. On June 13th, you published an article titled "The United States Is Creating a Kosovo Crisis." In it, you said, Biden administration officials are as dogmatic as the Kosovo prime minister, who has attracted Western ire. What do you mean by dogmatic, and who were you referring to?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you for the question, Mr. Chairman. The irony of the Biden administration policy was when it came into office, there was great fear in Belgrade that it would depart from the posture of the prior administration, that is the first Trump administration. And instead, what we saw was continuity. We saw continuity in the Biden administration from the first Trump administration, which, to sum it up, was excessive deference to Belgrade. And that excessive deference led to the flashpoints, the very flashpoints that this hearing talks about, most notably the Banjska operation, very serious operation by the paramilitaries in the north of Kosovo, very likely a serious violation of Belgrade's commitment to NATO. And this followed this followed, as I've referenced, this imbalanced approach only holding Pristina accountable and not holding Belgrade. Thank you, sir.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Thank you, sir. Mr. Primorac, how has Kosovo's election crisis impeded our relationship with Kosovo and with the EU, and what do we need to reestablish the productive strategic dialogue?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

Mr. Chairman, I think at the end of this month there's going to be new elections in Kosovo, and I think the stakes are very high as to the results of that election. Right now, the youth of Kosovo are leaving in large numbers. It's a country where it has enormous energy potential that could be beneficial for itself, the region, and also for the United States. This is a country that we need to support. Any grand deal that we do in the region, including Serbia, must include recognizing that country. It is a country that is 100% opposed to Communist China, to Russia, to Tehran. Recently, they moved their embassy to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv, a promise they made to President Trump and a promise that they have kept. We're still waiting for Belgrade. Thank you.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

I now recognize Ranking Member Keating for 5 minutes.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Thank you, Mr. Chair. Mr. Joseph, how does the lifting of the sanctions on Dodik and his affiliates embolden him to remain in politics and continue to further Republika Srpska's secessionist inclinations?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Ranking Member Keating, it does precisely that. By prematurely giving up our leverage over Dodik, we incentivize this longstanding malefactor and ally of Russia, open ally of Russia, to continue his destabilizing activities, which we see. Instead of stepping down as head, now first having been banished as president of Republika Srpska, he refuses to step down as head of the SNSD Party, as the Central Election Commission, an institution of the state of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has insisted. So the answer to your question is this provides exactly the wrong incentives, removes our leverage, and makes it more difficult for the positive actions that the U.S. Embassy and the administration are trying to do to solve this southern interconnector impasse, which would relieve Bosnia's dependency on Russian gas. Thank you, sir.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Would you say too that the same holds true for his family and affiliates?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

I would absolutely say that, and that's what was so surprising by this all-at-once decision. I simply don't understand. I've negotiated many agreements in the region. I negotiated an agreement between Kosovo and Serbia to hold Serbian national elections in Kosovo. You never give up your leverage until necessary.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Thank you. Mr. Coffey, thank you for your characterization in the beginning and your statements about Europe matters, because I think that's that's really critical and it's one of the underpinnings of this particular hearing too, as to why the Western Balkans matter. You mentioned still the importance of the Dayton Peace Accords. Who would benefit if that is disbanded and we move away from that?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Thank you very much for that question. Before I answer this question, I want to put everything in the correct context and remind that I believe the number one priority for the United States right now in Europe is maintaining unity and stability so we can deal with what is the largest war on the continent since the 1940s. In that context, I think that disbanding, unwinding, tinkering Dayton and its institutions is too much of a risky business, which could have unpredictable outcomes that could create additional problems at a time when we don't need any. There are, as you've heard from my fellow witnesses, there are issues with Dayton. No one, I don't think, has said it's perfect. It's now 30 years old. Things change, times change. You have different personalities coming in, personalities leaving, so the whole dynamic can change. But right now is not the time to have this discussion if you're looking at it purely from a U.S. national interest point of view.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Okay, thank you so much. And Mr. Joseph, the Millennium Challenge Corporation's compact with Kosovo, it does continue to bring energy security and workforce development to Kosovo. Can you comment on the importance of diversifying away from coal and how the MCC compact facilitates this diversification, and as well as U.S. foreign assistance to Kosovo vitally affecting Kosovo's ability to move forward in the future? How does U.S. foreign assistance in Kosovo facilitate regional stability, as well as Kosovo's future in the EU and in NATO?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you, Mr. Ranking Member. Our continuing support for Kosovo—economic, and I would emphasize here, military—is essential for U.S. interests. We have to remember that the United States and NATO already have the obligation, responsibility to care for Kosovo's security under KFOR, the successful NATO peacekeeping force. So we already have that requirement and obligation. The more we can do to enable Kosovo's economic security and its military security, by enhancing our bilateral relationship with Kosovo, it serves our own security interests. Let me quickly add here, Ranking Member Keating, that the solution here, it doesn't this standoff is not this intractable problem going back to 1389 that no one can solve between Kosovo and Serbia. It has a solution and its name is NATO. A pathway, only a pathway to NATO will effectively end the standoff, because at that point, Serbia will have no alternative. Its isolation campaign, its non-recognition campaign, its dependence on Russia and China at the UN Security Council will be meaningless. Why? Because NATO membership is vastly more important for Kosovo than is UN membership.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Thank you for addressing KFOR's importance, and I yield back.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Now recognize Representative Davidson from Ohio.

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)SPEAKER_03

Thank you, Chairman. Chairman Self, thanks for this hearing today. I believe you and I may be the only two members in this subcommittee who served in Europe during our time in the Army. So thank you. And I'd like to think that we can say from firsthand experience how important Europe is to the United States and how important the security relationships are there. I was there in the Cold War holding the line when the cause of freedom led to the fall of Berlin Wall. I was there in 1989 and got to see kind of the culmination of a lot of this when the wall came down. I know what I was there fighting for, but I also know what I was fighting against, and that was totalitarianism. So we're seeing today ideas that we rejected during the Cold War being embraced by Western Europe. I often think about Vice President JD Vance's February speech in Munich. The Vice President noted that, quote, "Within living memory of many of you in the room, the Cold War positioned defenders of democracy against much more tyrannical forces on this continent. And consider the side in that fight that censored dissidents, that closed churches, that canceled elections. Were they the good guys? Certainly not. And thank God they lost the Cold War. They lost because they neither valued nor respected all of their extraordinary blessings of liberty: the freedom to surprise, to make mistakes, to invent, and to build," end quote. I worry that these core values that we fought for to win the Cold War are lost in the European Union and NATO today. I fear that totalitarianism has infiltrated the very institutions that we stood up to counter totalitarianism. When lawmakers are arrested for quoting the Bible, when political parties are banned despite their popularity with the public, when people are put in jail for free speech or for prayer, I mean, these aren't the things we were defending. They're not the things I think we're supposed to be defending today, but they're going on unchecked. So it's time to fundamentally assess what Vice President Vance asked: what are we defending? What are we fighting for in Europe? Unfortunately, many in this— many of these institutions are living in the past about a new reality. For example, in recent months, the Department of War elected not to send a rotational brigade to Romania. The Senate Armed Services Committee has responded to that in retaliation by blocking the president's nominees to the Department of War policy office, for example. So, Mr. Primorac, is Romania a vital national security interest to the United States? Will we be irreparably harmed by not sending this one rotational brigade there? Is this going to cause catastrophic damage to the United States security posture?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

I think when we're talking about lawfare in Europe, it's against conservatives and those who hold conservative views, especially religious views. And we've seen coming out of Brussels a tendency to try to acquire more and more centralized power, and it always has a left-wing bias to it. And it's hurting all throughout all of Europe. With these kinds of activities by Brussels, it encourages politicians and government officials in places like France and Germany and Poland and other places to crack down on political opposition. So they use—and it's the same thing with the disinformation campaigns with respect to Russia. There's been disinformation campaigns by Russia for decades, ever since the end of the Cold War. It never—maybe it stopped for about 2 years. It has continued forward. So what the administration is doing to send a clear message to Europe that we value very strongly our transatlantic relationships, but we have to have a common set of democratic values, and that means accepting opposing views.

Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH)SPEAKER_03

Part of that is putting pressure on the Europeans to step up, and that's part of where the administration's policy prerogatives have said, Yeah, we're going to withhold this rotational brigade. Unfortunately, within our own party, within Republican Party in the Senate, the Senate Armed Services Committee is denying approval to President Trump's team. So I remember when Senator Tuberville had the courage to stand up and block nominees in the Biden administration because the Department of War was violating the law and funding abortion. A bipartisan coalition of senators descended on him to make his life really, frankly, a hell until he relented, and they came up with a different way to approve nominees. It was the biggest drama in the world. But now that the glove's on the other hand, blocking President—our president, President Trump's national security nominees seems not such a big deal to the Senate Armed Services Committee. So I'd like to call the Senate to stop blocking the MAGA agenda and support our president and his appointments. And we can't do much about it here in the House, but I think I'd call it out. So I further commend President Trump and his team for their work in crafting a realistic peace deal in Ukraine. They've worked diligently on this, and I get that some people in the Senate want to undermine it. Frankly, some people in the House want to undermine it, and certainly some people in the European Union and NATO want to undermine it. But I think we should all come together. And as President Trump says, I want people to stop dying. So he's got a clear policy. He wants to put his team in place. I hope the Senate's going to move forward and do just that. So, Mr. Primorac, what policies can the State Department pursue to restore our values? Uh, my time has expired. I yield.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

I now recognize Representative Titus from Nevada for 5 minutes.

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)SPEAKER_00

Thank you, Mr. Chairman. If I can get us back on topic here for a minute just to kind of summarize what I've been hearing during this hearing. Since 2012, Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership, and despite making some initial progress towards that membership, it's now stalled because primarily there's been this unresolved dispute with Kosovo, and secondarily a lack of any kind of anti-corruption or rule of law reforms, and that's required for full membership. Meantime, President Vučić has pursued a multi-vector foreign policy, and I'm quoting there, which balances the U.S., the EU, China, and Russia. Now, he's claimed to be supportive of Ukraine, but he maintains a strong relationship with Putin, and he's even sent military personnel to train in China, and he's welcomed President Xi for a state visit. Despite this, the Trump administration has pursued a strategic dialogue with Serbia, but it's been focused on business and energy and not on anti-corruption and the rule of law. We heard, and I think I interpreted this right, Mr. Joseph, that having a strategic dialogue with Serbia without having one with Kosovo is just not going to work. We're missing a key element here. So I would ask you, Mr. Coffey, do you think this strategic dialogue brings Serbia closer to us and in our orbit, or do you think it just emboldens Belgrade to now go and do whatever it wants to because they know Trump's not going to do anything about it?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Thank you for the question. I share the frustration that many have when it comes to our engagement with Serbia. I really believe Serbia's destiny is part of the Euro-Atlantic community. I just think we're years, if not decades, from that point. This doesn't mean we don't engage with them. We should engage with them whenever we can, but we should do so with our eyes wide open, and we shouldn't fall into this false sense of optimism that if we just have one more trade deal, if we just have one more strategic dialogue, we could just make Serbia that much closer to the United States. And one more point on this matter, Serbia the European Union is already Serbia's largest trading partner by far. I don't even think Russia makes it in the top 10. If it does, it's about number 10 or 11. But yet we still can't get Serbia out of Russia's orbit. This is because it's deeper than just trade deals. It's a way of how politics are done, how society is organized, and we have a long way to go before that changes.

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)SPEAKER_00

Well, do you think the deal that was struck with Mr. Kushner to build the hotel and apartment complex in Belgrade and just last month the Serbian Parliament passed a law paving the way for this to be fast-tracked, they called it a "project of importance for the Republic of Serbia," you think that's the way to bring them closer to the US?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Admittedly, this is an issue that is outside my purview as a scholar focused on Europe and Eurasia. But I would say, generally speaking, in principle, it's something that does raise eyebrows.

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)SPEAKER_00

I'd say it's a question of the willingness to engage in corrupt behavior to attain certain personal ends as opposed to political ones. But Mr. Joseph, would you like to add to that?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you, Representative Titus, and I agree with the thrust of your question, that it's a mistake and it's sending the wrong signal. And ironically, from a business standpoint, it raises serious questions. As I pointed out, there are serious doubts whether the government led by President Vučić can even deliver on this. As anyone who has been to that property, as I have, you see directly across the street is the main government building. And the opposition to this is broad and widespread. So it's tailor-made for further protest. And these devices, I believe, are not going to work to try to ram through and circumvent the cultural heritage protection. More widely, on this question about whether Serbia is years away or closer, I actually believe it could be closer, depending on the U.S. policy and our approach. The latest IRI poll surprisingly showed that Serbians are divided about evenly. In fact, there is 50% of the Serbian public has a net favorable posture towards NATO than is the opposite, so I think we're closer to that. And again, NATO's the solution. And I would just note here that the current Serbian ambassador to the United States, Dragan Šutanovac, former Minister of Defense, had long proposed Serbia's had long and correctly proposed Serbia's membership to NATO.

Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV)SPEAKER_00

Thank you. I yield back.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

And now recognize Representative Kim from California.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Thank you, Chairman Self and Ranking Member Keating, for holding today's hearing. Thank you, witnesses, for joining us today. Moscow maintains strong influence in the Balkans without needing to physically station large numbers of troops in the region, and it operates through well-funded local partners who share Moscow's goals and manipulates the information space to carry out its objectives. I want to ask you, Mr. Joseph, can you talk about to what extent the actors like Milorad Dodik, the Orthodox Church, and Russian-linked paramilitaries enable Moscow to obstruct NATO integration, the European Union progress, and democratic reforms across the Balkans?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you, Representative Kim. The record is littered with examples of how Milorad Dodik has obstructed Bosnia-Herzegovina's pathway to NATO, which it has formally—that is the formal position of Bosnia-Herzegovina to join NATO. It formally has a membership action plan, and there's been chronic efforts from Milorad Dodik carrying out the agenda from Moscow to to obstruct that, and to destabilize the country and halt its functioning, and, of course, launch the secession of—

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

you also talk about Russia's information warfare campaign and how that destabilizes the region?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you, Representative Kim. You're exactly right to broaden that question because it goes directly to Montenegro. Montenegro, a NATO ally, and very importantly, easy to overlook is how important it is that Montenegro joined NATO, denying Russia another warm weather port on the Adriatic by that. And Montenegro stood up and denied Russia's demand for that and then later joined NATO. And through its strategic partner, formal strategic partner Serbia, Russian narratives pollute Montenegro, creating division at the very time that this small Balkans country, less than a million people, has its best chance ever to join the European Union. Why? Because Belgrade does not want Montenegro to join the European Union.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Thank you so much. I want to transition to China. Over the last decade, the Chinese Communist Party has invested more than €30 billion in the Western Balkans, with Serbia as the primary beneficiary, financing highways and 5G networks, on opaque, high-interest terms. Mr. Primorac, I want to ask you a question about how the Chinese investments and loans creating political dependency and unsustainable debt exposure in the the Balkans. So what— can you talk about the risk that they pose to long-term US and European strategic interests?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

Thank you for the question. The risk is very high. When I served in the last Trump administration at USAID, I was part of a DFC-USAID counter-China working group, and we saw all over the world how China corrupts countries through their through their infrastructure programs, everything from bribing officials to get contracts at lower at higher cost or not observing any kind of labor, safety, environmental, or even technical standards, so these projects fall apart. In Novi Sad, we have a station that collapsed there and has caused massive protest. That was a Chinese-built program. They're all over the place. And one of the big problems is that when you look at the tenders that are issued in in the Balkans, the Chinese are the main people who who are responding with with bids. Where are the Where's the West? This is why it's very important for this administration to move forward like they did the last time, using DFC, Commerce Department, and other kinds of strong commercial tools to be able to provide an alternative to China.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Thank you very much. Mr. Coffey, given Serbia's simultaneous pursuit of EU membership while deepening political, energy, and military ties with China and Russia, including China's expanding economic and security footprint, how should Congress assess the risk this dual alignment poses to the regional stability, the NATO operations, and broader U.S. and Euro-Atlantic strategic interests?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

I think the important thing is to be aware of this and not have any false illusions on what is happening. Yes, Serbia on paper is aspiring to join the European Union, but at a time when most of Europe is moving away from Chinese investments, Chinese engagement, bringing in China to key infrastructure projects, Serbia and arguably Georgia remain the two European countries that do the exact opposite. And the question that need to be that needs to be answered is is why. Thank you.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

I now recognize Representative Costa from California.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and Ranking Member. It is challenging looking at the history of this part of the Baltics post-World War II and where we are today. The fact is that both Mr. Coffey and Mr. Joseph, you've indicated that lifting sanctions on individuals in this region and elsewhere undermines the effectiveness of our ability to seek an agreement between these factions that have existed for decades.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you. Yes, sir, that is correct, that prematurely lifting sanctions which have proven to be a very effective tool, is a mistake.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

And what role do you see, Mr. Joseph, as the ability for us to work on a more comprehensive basis with NATO to get the sort of ability for these countries to come together? It's been really very difficult in obviously recent years.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Sure, yes, sir, and NATO plays a key role in Kosovo. In Bosnia-Herzegovina, ironically, there's an economic avenue that is tailor-made for this administration because there's a tremendous potential

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Why do you think the administration's not pursuing it? You or Mr. Joseph said that we're at a crossroads right now.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Sir?

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Did you say, or was it your colleague here who said that we're at a crossroads right now with Serbia?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes, sir. Yes, we're at a crossroads with Serbia, absolutely. And it's very important that State Department officials have acknowledged this and that we understand that we, the United States, are also at the crossroads, and that we can no longer continue this posture of excessive deference to Belgrade, that we have to move Belgrade towards making a strategic decision. And we have the

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

leverage to do that?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes, sir, we do have the leverage. We absolutely do have that leverage. Yes, sir.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Ambassador Luke?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Well, of course, I take a different view on this. I think we have—we use the leverage that we have and we still haven't made meaningful progress on getting Serbia more into our alignment. It's not—I don't think it's too much of an issue regarding economics because Serbia is already trading with the Euro-Atlantic community far more than they do Russia and also China. But yet they still pursue this policy where they try to play each side off the other.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Right, and Belgrade's trying to have it both ways.

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Absolutely.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

And they're getting away with that.

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

And they are.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Yeah, and really, we go back here with the actions between Ukraine and our alliance with our European partners. And I think that part of the world's wondering how certain that that is, notwithstanding the discussions that are taking place today, right?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Absolutely.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

And we have leverage there. One would argue that we have greater leverage in terms of our ability with the Europeans to support Ukraine, and Putin realizes that this administration is not willing to leverage itself, right?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

I agree with that.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

And so today, another thing that's not directly related to this, but the undermining of the actions by Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty funding has left us with only the Russian and the Chinese's voices being heard. Do you think it's been serious as having an impact in that part of the world?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

I think it will certainly have a detrimental impact to that part of the world and other parts. I don't know if we've exactly felt it right now. This is probably more of a longer-term issue. And we also shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking that these organizations were working perfectly to begin with, but it was certainly the wrong choice in my opinion to just get rid of everything and have nothing meaningful to replace it at a time when in the 21st century information is so vital. How people consume information, how you deliver information is so key to geopolitics, and we have effectively removed a tool that we have to do so.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

And I remember very clearly back in February of 2022 when there was bipartisan, strong bipartisan support that this was between good and evil. And if we're trying to increase the narrative about good versus evil without these tools, how do you do that?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Well, you, you really can't, or your job is made more difficult.

Rep. Jim Costa (D-CA)SPEAKER_09

Correct. Well, my time's expired. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. To be continued.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

I now recognize Representative McBride from Delaware.

Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE)SPEAKER_01

Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, Ranking Member Keating, and thank you very much to our witnesses for your time and your expertise. Unfortunately, there is no shortage of crises and urgent situations that demand the US's attention right now. While the Western Balkans may not always receive the headlines or attention it deserves, this region remains crucial to both American interests and those of our European allies. Ignoring simmering tensions in the Western Balkans is a poor strategy that we conduct at our own peril. Right now, it seems like this administration lacks a coherent foreign policy strategy. President Trump is levying high tariffs on some of our closest allies while removing sanctions on Balkan politicians allied with Putin. Closer to home, he just pardoned the former Honduran president, who was convicted by a jury of conspiring with drug cartels to move more than 400 tons of cocaine into the United States. That comes at the same time the president seems to be looking to start a war with Venezuela and is conducting extrajudicial killings in the Caribbean over alleged drug trafficking. The lawlessness and corruption is dangerous and it is deadly. Mr. Coffey, I want to return to a subject that I know my colleagues have already brought up at length, which is the Trump administration's recent decision to remove sanctions on Milorad Dodik, the nationalist politician who has undertaken a series of actions that threaten to undermine the Dayton Peace Agreement. This agreement, as you've talked about, is imperfect, but is critical in maintaining stability in the Balkans. In March of this year, Secretary Rubio described Dodik's actions as, quote, "dangerous and destabilizing." And so I'm curious if you could expand on your perception of how this action by the Trump administration undermines the national security interests of the United States. And at the risk of asking you to explain the justification for a decision that you disagree with, could you shed any light for us on what the administration might be thinking with the sanctions removal?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Thank you, Representative McBride. It should be noted, tying back to what Representative Davidson said earlier about the announcement that the U.S. is stopping a rotational brigade to Romania, this is connected actually because both announcements were made on the same day. And we might not think that these issues are connected, that the administration is not that joined up where they would be messaging something, but certainly our friends and allies and our adversaries in Europe can see it this way. I don't know the thinking behind removing these sanctions. It wasn't made clear by the administration why they're doing this. As I pointed out in my oral statement, it wasn't made clear what, if anything, we got in return. What I do know is that, leading up to this point, there were several op-eds placed around town, and then voilà, out of nowhere, Milorad Dodik is removed from the sanctions list. So one can infer what they want from this, but I do wonder what sort of internal processes took place to arrive to this decision. And I guess this would be a matter for the legislative branch to try to figure out. Thank you.

Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE)SPEAKER_01

Indeed. Thank you very much for that answer. And I think to your point around connecting dots, I find this move very disturbing, and it seems to follow a clear pattern of wealthy or well-connected individuals obtaining get-out-of-jail-free cards from President Trump. The New York Times reported that Mr. Dodik hired allies of President Trump, such as Rudy Giuliani, to advocate for the removal of those sanctions. Sanctions And so it seems to me to be very suspicious behavior. Professor Joseph, I'm curious if you could speak a little bit to your perception of the potential for corruption to undermine our national security interests and what message this particular action and the circumstances that I've outlined that surround it, what message that could send to our allies.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you, Representative McBride, for that question. And we see the evidence of corruption in the relationship that China has with Serbia, which is built on corruption and which has so angered the Serbian people who have mobilized under the banner Corruption Kills, correctly so. And so, it's very clear: China uses these so-called investment deals that are completely opaque and that are destructive. And we see now that there's a problem, that you cannot get away with this forever. So, corruption is an enormous problem. And one other thing from the IRI poll, Serbia is the only country in that poll in which the citizens have stated that corruption is the number one problem. It ranks very high across the region, including Bosnia and Herzegovina and neighbors, also North Macedonia, and all of them, but only in Serbia do citizens say it is the number one problem. And our officials should be highlighting—this is missing in this sharp debate, this charged debate now in Serbia—our officials should be highlighting the fact that this was China Belt and Road, and they were the general contractors on this fatal construction.

Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE)SPEAKER_01

Thank you, and thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Okay, we'll go to a second round of questions. I want a lightning round for all three of the witnesses, and I certainly prefer a quick yes or no answer. And I realize that that is probably anathema to your scholarship, but do State Department career bureaucrats view Prime Minister Kurti as an obstructionist?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Yes uh, more so than not?

SPEAKER_UNKNOWN

Yes.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Would you support an unclassified U.S. government report on the 2023 Serbian militant attack in Banjska, Kosovo, with questions about possible Serbian government involvement?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes. Yes. Long overdue.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Do you think that the U.S. should grant another sanctions waiver to Serbia for its dependence on Gazprom and NIS?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

Waiver? No way. No.

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

No.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Absolutely not. Should push Belgrade towards nationalization of NIS.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Do you support continued U.S. assistance to professionalize and bolster the Kosovo Security Force?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes.

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Yes.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Should the United States and its partners in Europe increase pressure on Serbia to abide by its promise not to oppose Kosovo's membership in international organizations?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes. Yes, as agreed by Belgrade in the EU agreement.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Does Serbia engage in the deactivation of registered residence of individuals, called passivation, in the valley in which the minority Albanians live in Serbia?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes. Yes. Yes, that takes place in Preševo Valley. Yes.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Yes. Does Serbia restrict the Albanian language in public institutions even though Albanian minority is guaranteed certain rights?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

Yes.

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Yes. Yes.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Before my time is up, and I will yield back some time, I have a bill here that I am going to introduce to express my concerns over the treatment of the ethnic minorities in Serbia, particularly the ethnic Albanians. It would require the State Department to report on Belgrade's treatment of ethnic Albanians, including the widely reported passivation. And it's time for us to do our part to hold the Republic of Serbia accountable to its minority ethnic groups, to include the Albanians. With that, I yield back, and I recognize the ranking member, Mr. Keating.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Thank you, Mr. Chair. I just want to just take a few minutes. We're in a second round on a question.

SPEAKER_UNKNOWN

Um,

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Mr. Coffey, what do you— what are the purposes of sanctions

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

The purpose of sanctions generally are to raise the cost of doing whatever you're doing that the United States doesn't want you to do. I guess that would be the simplest way of defining it.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

And so what would be the purpose of removing sanctions?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

The purpose of removing sanctions would be twofold, I guess. It would be rewarding a change in behavior, or it would be used to extract a concession. And in the case of Milorad Dodik, I don't see evidence of either of these happening.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Sure. How would you describe the actions that led to sanctions on Dodik and his affiliates? Amateurish. And so, isn't sanctions by themselves, the removal of sanctions, the adding of sanctions, they're really meaningless, I think, unless they're connected with, as you said, trying to influence some actions one way or the other. So we had sanctions imposed before for reasons, disruptive reasons, on Dodik and his affiliates. And what do we have for a reason that they were removed, Mr. Joseph?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

We have almost nothing, and it's quite ironic, Ranking Member Keating, because the administration has stated that peace and stability in the Balkans is its number one priority. And by prematurely lifting these sanctions on this number one destabilizing character in Bosnia-Herzegovina, they've only bought themselves more instability.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

So, Mr. Coffey, what actions were rewarded by removing these sanctions?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

The actions that were rewarded, I guess, so you could infer hiring the right people, the right lobbyists to promote a certain agenda in in this town. And this isn't something that's unique to the Trump administration. Would

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

you

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

mean, for

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

instance, Rod Blagojevich?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

I'm sorry?

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Have you heard the name Rod Blagojevich in connection with this?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Yes.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Have you heard the name Rudy Giuliani?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Yes.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

in connection with this? Have you heard former General Flynn's name connected with this?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Um, no, but

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Have you heard Laura Loomer's name connected with this?

SPEAKER_UNKNOWN

Yes.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Same with you, Mr. Joseph?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

I'm not privy to the names of people that they've hired, but I know that in Belgrade they proudly—I just saw the president and foreign minister recently said they're proud of the lobbying effort that they have in Washington.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

So is that what you're rewarding by removal of sanctions? You're rewarding those who pay at least hundreds of thousands of dollars reported in fees for people connected to the administration. Is that the reward? That's given for this is— doesn't it defeat the purpose of sanctions, either imposing them or removing them, when this is the case?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes, it defeats the purpose of the sanctions, and it goes counter to U.S. foreign policy interests and the stated priorities of the Trump administration.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

In that regard, what about other areas of the world, other areas where there's vital U.S. economic and security interests and there's sanctions imposed? Doesn't it diminish in other parts of the world the imposition of sanctions if this happens?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

I believe that that's correct because you have a precedent. You see a pathway to removing sanctions that you don't want.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

So actions like this have a greater impact than just beyond the Western Balkans?

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Yes, Ranking Member Keating, yes.

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Absolutely.

Ranking Member William Keating (D-MA)SPEAKER_05

Yeah, all right, I yield back. Thank you very much.

Mr. Edward P. JosephSPEAKER_08

Thank you,

SPEAKER_UNKNOWN

sir.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Thank you. I recognize Representative Kim.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Mr. Primorac, I want to revisit the question that I posed earlier about Chinese investments and loans creating political dependency and unsustainable debt exposure in the Balkans. Has Washington made it very clear to Belgrade that future U.S. security assistance depends on Serbia avoiding deeper military cooperation with China, especially after acquiring Chinese missile systems and drones?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

Serbia having military relations with Communist China is a red line, but I'm far more optimistic than my colleagues about the possibilities of finding a grand bargain. The president has done it during his first term between Serbia and Kosovo and was moving forward, but he didn't get another term. And who would have thought that Armenia and Azerbaijan would come to a peace agreement? Who would have thought that the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda would come to a peace agreement? Who would have thought that there would be a peace opportunity in Gaza? And we look at what's happening right now between Russia and Ukraine, real prospects for peace. So I think with American leadership, especially because of the nature of President Trump being able to promote the American interests in a commercial fashion, that he can use that kind of leadership again with respect to pulling in Serbia. I am far more optimistic about that. The Serbian leaders, both in Belgrade and Banja Luka, have openly asked for President Trump to do so. What does Russia have to offer Serbia? They have no money. All they have is death and destruction. What does China have to offer Serbia other than debt traps and bad loans? So I think it is an incredible opportunity now. But the problem is we have no ambassadors in the region because they are blocked from going over there. We have a political ambassador in neighboring Croatia who's been there maybe two or three months, and he is already pushing forward big deals on the energy side, promoting gas pipeline extensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina, of all places. It is time that the Senate move forward with the president's candidates for ambassadors, because those ambassadors know how to do commercial diplomacy. The ones we have there don't. Thank you.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Thank you. Mr. Primorac, I'm going to continue on the questioning with you regarding the EU membership and anti-corruption issues. Are any of the Western Balkan countries meeting the EU rule of law and anti-corruption standards? Would EU membership for these states meaningfully strengthen the regional stability, or would greater participation undermine the democratic institutions of the EU?

Mr. Max PrimoracSPEAKER_04

The EU, like the United States, has spent massive amounts of anti-corruption programs. We've also had it in Ukraine, and they simply do not function if you do not resolve the fundamental problems in these states. With Bosnia-Herzegovina, it's not a state. In Serbia, it's floating in between the East and the West. There was no leadership in the last administration. Hopefully we'll get it—we will get it actually from this administration. Unless you resolve these fundamental structural problems within these countries, you can spend as much money as you want, as we have, and you will get zero results.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Thank you. Mr. Coffey, I want to talk to you about organized crime. It is rampant across the Western Balkans because it turns the region into a major cocaine gateway, weapons supermarket, and money laundering hub. Local mafia are increasingly intertwined with political elites and undermining the rule of law and state institutions. So how is corruption enabling transnational criminal organizations to expand in the Western Balkans? And what are the main illicit activities that you can cite that these criminal groups conduct? And how do they threaten security in Europe and the United States?

Mr. Luke CoffeySPEAKER_07

Well, the corruption in the region is the ocean through which the organized criminal organizations can swim. It enables this sort of behavior. And the European— I think probably the greatest tools we have to help these countries in the Western Balkans reform is by enticing them towards EU and NATO membership. Before they can get in, they have to reform. If they don't reform, they don't get in. The European Commission just released its annual enlargement report where it highlighted in chapter and verse many of the problems the countries in the Western Balkans face. So they know what the problem is. It's up to them, their leaders, to find the political will to make these changes. But the organized crime syndicates make it difficult for them to do so. And that creates the instability in the Balkans, which, as I pointed out earlier, can impact the stability of the rest of Europe if we're not careful. So it's definitely something that we should keep a close eye on.

Rep. Young Kim (R-CA)SPEAKER_02

Thank you. I yield.

Chairman Keith Self (R-TX)SPEAKER_06

Thank you, every one of the witnesses. I appreciate your testimony. Mr. Primorac, we asked for specific ambassadors in the State reauthorization bill that passed out of the House, to your point earlier about having ambassadors on the ground. And as far as the Trump administration, I find it difficult with the answers that you gave on the Department of State attitude toward Kosovo. So we do need the president's intervention here. The members of the subcommittee may have some additional questions for the witnesses, and we ask that you respond to these in writing. Those will be submitted officially pursuant to committee rules. All members may have 5 days to submit statements, questions, and extraneous materials for the record, subject to the length of limitations. Without objection, the committee stands adjourned. Thank you.